How the gender gap could be a deciding factor in the upcoming US presidential election

CEDAR CITY, Utah: Utah has long been a Republican stronghold, with nearly 80 per cent of the western state’s sizable Mormon population historically backing the party.
But there is a sense that the tide is turning.
United States Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden in July as the Democrats’ presidential nominee, has given some in Utah a sense of renewed optimism.
“Being a Republican, I know they want limited government, but honestly I cannot support a presidential candidate that’s not for women,” said Utah voter Melaine Call, referring to Trump, who has long been criticised for his treatment of women.
With the Nov 5 election looming, polling has increasingly shown that female voters in the US are backing Harris, while men are turning to Trump. Their campaigns have also highlighted a growing split among voters along gender lines.
In another part of Utah, a procession of trucks – called the “Trump train” by locals – cruises through town on most weekends.
Those behind the wheel are mostly young men, and they are backing the only man in the race for the White House.
“He’s got guts, and he’s got grit, and he, in my opinion, is the only thing standing in the way of them taking over what we’ve grown to love here,” Utah voter Greg Rohback told CNA.
Research by Harvard University found that Democrats are losing ground with young men across the country, dropping from 42 per cent in 2020 to 32 per cent currently.
It is part of a global trend, with many male voters feeling disillusioned and left behind amid ever-changing gender roles.
This is why men are turning to Trump’s populist promise for America.
Brendan Bull, a 24-year-old Utah mine worker, said he has fond memories of Trump’s first term in office.
He said: “Everything went down, gas prices, rent, mortgages, everyone’s pay went up. He just knows how it works.”
The former president has said he will stand up to China, end all world wars, and assert America’s dominance on the world stage. He also promised a U-turn on production of electric vehicles and plans to boost oil and natural gas production.
That sits well with some male voters, who say Trump will make America “manly” again and set the country back on the road to victory.
Still, men alone will not get him back into the Oval Office. Exit polls in the 2016 election showed that a majority – 52 per cent – of white women voted for Trump, though that figure has since been blamed on faulty data.
A jury found him liable for sexual abuse last year, while he has bragged about touching women’s genitals and made crude remarks.
But some female voters told CNA they are not bothered by that.
“No, I think anybody can make remarks. Whether the statements are true or not, that’s not his role as president. His role is to govern us and lead us as a country,” one voter said.
Meanwhile, Gen Z women have become the most progressive group in US history – and they are much more likely to vote than young men.
The generation came of age in the #MeToo era, and were galvanised to take action after the overturning of Roe v Wade – a landmark decision by the Supreme Court that meant women who do not wish to carry their pregnancy to full term might run afoul of the law in some US states.
As more American women shift to the left, Harris’ core messaging is landing with these voters.
“It’s really cool – this is my first time voting, having a woman as a candidate,” said Utah voter Brooklynn Gallup.
For some seasoned female Republicans, it could be their first time voting blue. Numerous ex-Republican officials have also called Trump “unfit to serve” and endorsed Harris.
Audrey Evans from the Utah Women for Kamala group said: “Women have the power to do a lot more of the negotiating, of the compromising, building unity, bringing people together.”